Retail sales down in March

Retail sales declined 0.4 percent in March 2013, according to the US Census Bureau's latest nominal read of retail sales.

By SoldAtTheTop,?Guest blogger / April 12, 2013

Retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.42 percent in March 2013 and slipped 0.64 percent below the level seen in March 2012.

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Today, the?U.S. Census Bureau?released its?latest nominal read of retail sales?showing a decline of 0.4% from February, but a gain of 2.8% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.?

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Writer, The PaperEconomy Blog

'SoldAtTheTop' is not a pessimist by nature but a true skeptic and realist who prefers solid and sustained evidence of fundamental economic recovery to 'Goldilocks,' 'Green Shoots,' 'Mustard Seeds,' and wholesale speculation.

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Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.42% from February and slipped 0.64% below the level seen in March 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, ?real? discretionary retail sales declined a notable 2.27% over the same period.?

On a ?nominal? basis, there had appeared to be ?rough correlation? between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.?

Chart 1 shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.?

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.?

Looking at chart 2, adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI ?less shelter? for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the ?rough correlation? between the year-over-year change to the ?discretionary? retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.?

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